Importance of 52.38%

With any individual game you have a 50% chance to win regardless of which team you play, if you are playing against the spread (ATS). For Baseball, ATS is the run-line, for Hockey ATS is the Puck-Line, for Basketball and Football ATS is the spread. This article applies to betting ATS in Basketball and Football. The Spread is written as follows for each of the sports:

Baseball (Run-Line):
Cincinnati -1.5 (+125)
Chicago +1.5 (-150)

Hockey (Puckline):
Edmonton -1.5 (+150)
Vancouver +1.5 (-200)

Football/Basketball
Chicago Bears +7 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts -7 (-110)

The number in the parenthesis is the juice that you pay if you win. In Football and Basketball the juice is usually -110. To figure out what you win on each bet you either bet 110 to win 100 or you divide the amount bet by 1.1. Thus if you bet $100 at -110, if you win, you win $90.91 (100/1.1) Thus if you make two bets at -110 and win one and lose one you have lost money (+90.91 and -100). This begs the question as to, at least in Football and Basketball, what percentage must you pick at in order to break even (or more postiively begin to make money). The breakeven point is essentially 52.38%. For example a person who bets 100 games at $100 each and wins 52 and loses 48 ends up -$72.68 (win of 52 * $90.91= +$4727.32 and 48 losses at -$100 each is 48*-100=-$4,800). Thus you must break the 52% barrior to make money.

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